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APR 30 – From Malthus to Musk: Searching for Population Equilibrium in East Asia

Malthus driving a Tesla. AI generated original image.

March 10, 2026

Join the East Asia Center along with the Center for Studies in Demography & Ecology and Henry M. Jackson School of International Studies for this panel discussion with Wang Feng, University of California Irvine, and Yong Cai, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill along with UW faculty James Lin and Sara Curran.

From Malthus’s warnings of overpopulation to Musk’s urge to boost fertility, the drastic turn of humanity’s relationship with population growth is one of the defining features of East Asian societies. Nowhere have demographic shifts been more seismic in their speed, scale, and scope than in East Asia over the past century. Populations in this region now simultaneously exhibit the world’s longest life expectancies and its lowest fertility rates.

How did East Asian societies arrive at this point? Can they return to replacement-level fertility? Echoing the historical contrast between East Asian and Western European demographic regimes, we debate the existence of a distinct “East Asian model” of demographic transition. Adopting a regional and comparative perspective, we argue that intense family competition and proactive government intervention—both operating within the context of deep-seated cultural traditions—have defined the region’s current demographic challenges.

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