Few questions carry more weight for the future of international security than how artificial intelligence will transform defense capabilities, alliance structures, and the very nature of warfare itself. Against this backdrop, the Jackson School’s Program on Strategy, Policy, and Diplomacy Research (SPDR) brought together scholars and practitioners for “Positioning Japan in AI and Emerging Technologies,” an April 24 panel discussing Japan’s role in AI and the broader technological future of the U.S.-Japan alliance.
Jackson School Professor Saadia Pekkanen — the founding director of SDPR, whose work focuses on the foreign affairs of Japan and Asia — gave the opening remarks, as well as introducing the panel’s moderator Jim Goldgeier — a professor of International Relations at American University, past president of the Association of Professional Schools of International Affairs, and incoming president-elect of the International Studies Association — and commentator Kristin Vekasi, the Mansfield Chair of Japanese and Indo-Pacific Affairs at the University of Montana.
Understanding Capabilities and Risks in AI for Defense
The first speaker, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) Research Scientist Ted Fujimoto, kicked off the panel with a general overview of AI capabilities. Fujimoto, who has been studying AI since 2015, showcased some of his research from PNNL demonstrating how large language models produce unpredictable, and often incorrect, outputs. He used these findings as a basis to argue that on a large scale, AI should not be deployed in warfare or tactical decision-making frameworks.
Japan’s Defense Strategy in the Takaichi Era
Adam Liff, professor of East Asian International Relations at Indiana University and nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, then brought the conversation to the strategic level with his discussion on Japan’s defense strategy under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. During “The U.S.-Japan Alliance and Taiwan,” an April 23 lecture jointly hosted by the Taiwan and Japan Studies Programs, Liff detailed the growing threat China poses to Taiwan; he connected that regional tension to Japan’s evolving security posture during his April 24 presentation, noting that Tokyo has increased defense spending and begun updating defense strategy documents more frequently than in the past. According to Liff, the shift marks a departure from decades of restraint.
Attendees at the April 24 panel hosted by the Program on Strategy, Policy, and Diplomacy Research. Photo by Madison Morgan
The Future of the U.S.-Japan Alliance in Changing Warfare
Ayumi Teraoka, assistant professor of politics at Brandeis University, examined how Japan is adapting its defense and security posture amid rapidly changing forms of warfare. Situating Japan’s recent policy shifts in the context of the war in Ukraine, growing China-Russia military coordination, tensions in the Middle East, and the expanding role of AI, drones, cyber operations, and economic coercion, Teraoka argued that Japanese defense planners are increasingly being asked to prepare for “everything everywhere all at once.”
Her remarks highlighted Japan’s efforts across diplomacy, intelligence, military preparedness, economic security, and technology. These include deeper defense-industrial cooperation with the United States and other partners, reforms to Japan’s intelligence architecture, greater attention to cyber and information warfare, efforts to secure critical minerals and resilient supply chains, and investments in dual-use and unmanned technologies. Rather than suggesting that Japan is moving away from the U.S.-Japan alliance, Teraoka emphasized that the alliance is being adapted to meet new operational, industrial, technological, and geopolitical demands.
Export Controls and Defense Technologies
Wrapping up the panel was Crystal Pryor, managing director of TradeStrategic LLC and senior research fellow at the University at Albany’s Center for Policy Research. Pryor focused on Japan’s arms-export ban — a decades-old restriction that has shaped Tokyo’s defense industry and strategic options; her presentation looked at an April revision to that law and asked three questions:
- Is this a fundamental shift — or the latest step in a longer trajectory?
- Does the policy change reflect real capability, or aspirational intent?
- What does “opening the door” actually mean in practice?
Pryor previously presented at SPDR’s first public event in October 2025, providing an overview of foreign and defense policies in Japan.
Building Policy Bridges Between Research and Practice
SPDR began operations in 2024 with funding from the United States-Japan Foundation, and has hosted three public lectures, along with internal workshops featuring scholars from across the globe.
Saadia Pekannen, founding director of the Program on Strategy, Policy, and Diplomacy Research, showcases the recently-launched Japan Policy Commons and its LinkedIn page. Photo by Madison Morgan
Furthermore, SPDR has recently launched the Japan Policy Commons, a collaborative digital ecosystem for connecting policy-relevant scholarship on Japan’s politics, economics, and security; for those interested, SPDR invited them to join the Japan Policy Commons LinkedIn page.
