{"id":758,"date":"2016-11-28T16:51:24","date_gmt":"2016-11-28T16:51:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/jsis.washington.edu\/korea\/?p=758"},"modified":"2022-10-06T16:35:54","modified_gmt":"2022-10-06T16:35:54","slug":"challenges","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jsis.washington.edu\/korea\/news\/challenges\/","title":{"rendered":"Challenges of North Korean Instability"},"content":{"rendered":"

Beth Do, a student in the Master’s in Applied International Studies program at the Jackson School, writes about a recent public event on North Korea\u00a0featuring The RAND Corporation. The event was sponsored by the Center for Korea Studies at the Jackson School.<\/em><\/p>\n

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Over 100 students, faculty, and interested community members gathered on Thursday, November 10, to hear an appraisal of the North Korean state, the role of nuclear weapons and potential scenarios and interventions.<\/p>\n

Revisiting the subject of a nuclear North Korea felt particularly timely given the recent American elections.<\/p>\n

The Korean Peninsula Forum<\/a> began with opening remarks from Moon Duk-ho,\u00a0the Consul General of the Republic of Korea, who reiterated his appreciation for American military support and emphasized the importance of trilateral cooperation between the U.S., Japan and South Korea.<\/p>\n

Dr. Bruce Bennett<\/a>, a senior defense analyst at The RAND Corporation and the event’s guest speaker, began his lecture addressing\u00a0the common belief that the United States\u2019 strategy\u00a0in regards to North Korea has been one of \u201cstrategic patience.\u201d He disagreed with this assessment, asking \u201cwhy would we be foolish enough to let Kim Jong-un build up his arsenal?\u201d<\/p>\n

By one estimate, he noted, North Korea is projected to have 80 nuclear weapons by 2020. If desperate, he said, North Korea would use these weapons as a solution.<\/p>\n

\"Senior<\/p>\n

Senior defense analyst at the RAND Corporation, Bruce Bennett. Photo credit: Beth Do<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Dr. Bennett spoke about the role of North Korea\u2019s political ideology in maintaining an arsenal of nuclear weapons and in provoking the international community by aggressively ramping up ballistic testing, which has increased in recent years.<\/p>\n

Though each test violates multiple Security Council resolutions, he emphasized the lack of a consistent and effective international response has proven to the North Korean regime that they will be able to continue without fear of retaliation.<\/p>\n

He provided\u00a0several possible future scenarios:<\/p>\n