{"id":233,"date":"2015-08-12T15:59:35","date_gmt":"2015-08-12T15:59:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/arcticincontext.com\/?p=233"},"modified":"2021-07-11T23:16:57","modified_gmt":"2021-07-11T23:16:57","slug":"the-disease-amidst-us","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jsis.washington.edu\/aic\/2015\/08\/12\/the-disease-amidst-us\/","title":{"rendered":"The Disease Amidst Us"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Erica Dingman<\/strong><\/p>\n

The field of science is known for expressing caution with the interpretation of its findings, but this is for a\u00a0 good reason. Scientific reports are couched in terms of \u2018uncertainty,\u2019 \u2018likely,\u2019 and \u2018high, medium, or low confidence\u2019 \u2013 nothing in life is guaranteed. So I was astonished to read a statement made by Christophe McGlade and Paul Ekins in the journal Nature<\/a>: \u201cWe show that development of resources in the Arctic and any increase in unconventional oil production are incommensurate with efforts to limit average global warming to 2\u00a0\u00b0C. Our results show that policy makers\u2019 instincts to exploit rapidly and completely their territorial fossil fuels are, in aggregate, inconsistent with their commitments to this temperature limit.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"The<\/p>\n

Indeed, the global inventory<\/a>\u00a0 of CO2 emissions have continued to rise, primarily as a result of fossil fuel combustion, and the production of cement and metals. Though lower than the average over the past decade, the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency showed that the 2013 emissions inventory grew by 2 percent compared to 2012. Yet, fossil fuel exploration continues in the Arctic where it\u2019s estimated that 75 percent of oil and gas potential is offshore and 25 percent onshore, according to a recent report by the National Petroleum Council. This is the same as 479 billion barrels of oil equivalent potential, which if developed would release additional CO2 emissions into the atmosphere through processes of combustion in power and heat generation.<\/p>\n

Arctic fossil fuel development may not, however, be the panacea sometimes imagined. Last December, Chevron Canada shelved plans to drill exploratory wells in the Beaufort Sea citing \u201cEconomic uncertainty in the industry\u201d as a factor. Since August 2014, the price of crude oil plummeted from over US$100 a barrel and has hovered around US$40 since December. Then in June 2015, Imperial Oil and its partners Exxon Mobil Corp and BP followed suit asking for an extension to their exploration license in the region.<\/p>\n

In part, this is a result of what drillers consider a complicated regulatory regime in Canada\u2019s Arctic. The extent to which Arctic oil resources are developed remains uncertain. Dennis Bevington, a member of Canada\u2019s Parliament, representing the Northwest Territories, thinks it \u201cunlikely\u201d that Arctic oil resources will be developed to any great degree, though \u201cRussia may do a little bit, but prices will be out of line.\u201d<\/p>\n

Gas, however, \u201cmay hold out a little longer\u201d because of the inherent link between producer and consumer, says Bevington. But the politics of pipelines have their own challenges \u2013 think of the XL Keystone pipeline, which aims to further connect the Alberta oil sands with markets in the U.S. Canada has had its share of pipeline issues. Beyond Keystone, the Mackenzie Gas Project pipeline was shelved \u2013 though the project received National Energy Board (NEB) approval in 2011. Bevington points out that \u201cthe shale gas revolution [in the U.S.] killed that plan\u201d when it pushed prices too low. The Mackenzie project, which has been indefinitely shelved, is planned as a conduit for gas drawn from the Beaufort coast in Canada\u2019s Northwest Territories to connect gas fields with North American markets.<\/p>\n

Sanjay Chaturvedi, Professor at Punjab University in India and a seasoned expert in Arctic issues, concurs with McGlade and Ekins that the development of Arctic hydrocarbons is problematic. \u201cThe \u2018Arctic Paradox\u2019 (fossil fuels that are among the major \u2018culprits\u2019 in the context of global warming and climate change now proving to be one of the key catalysts for the renewed geopolitical and geo-economic interest in the Circumpolar North) seems to suggest the following.\u201d He suggests that \u201cthe opportunity offered by the challenge of climate change to think differently about \u2018development\u2019 and \u2018energy security\u2019 (concepts\/understandings driven and dictated largely by what some scholars have thoughtfully described as \u2018carboniferous capitalism\u2019) is unfortunately withering away.\u201d<\/p>\n

In some respects, the Arctic is a metaphorical \u2018battleground\u2019 for development and energy security. Yet where the Arctic clearly shows the signs of global warming, the thirst for fossil fuels supports an economic regime that has been deemed unsustainable for future generations. Divesting from fossil fuels requires a new outlook on the global economic model, but reaching the necessary renewable energy capacity to fill our power and energy needs will take some time.<\/p>\n

This is an argument that has been made, for example, from China to Greenland. With a predominately Inuit citizenry, the Greenlandic people are in a heated debate as to the type (for example, uranium) and scale of the nation\u2019s hydrocarbon and mineral wealth. If developed, these subsurface resources, which are valued commodities in the global marketplace, could provide a pathway to economic independence from the Kingdom of Denmark. Notably, however, hydropower provides Greenland with approximately 70 percent<\/a> of its energy needs, and other renewables are being used to a lesser degree.<\/p>\n

Bevington views the transition to renewable energy sources as a viable solution. \u201cIn Texas, a solar company signed a contract for 4 cents an hour\u201d and anticipates 2 cents an hour, he said. \u201cThese solar companies are signing on with big companies.\u201d From here, Bevington sees \u2018big changes\u2019 on the horizon: \u201cAs we change the energy form many of these [non-renewable] resources will stay in the ground\u2026 We\u2019ve developed affordable renewables now we have to develop the technology. That\u2019s where the electric car comes into play.\u201d<\/p>\n

When world leaders convene in Paris for the UN Climate Change Conference \u2013 known as COP 21 \u2013 in December 2015, the overarching goal of the Convention is to adopt a \u201cnew instrument\u201d on limiting the global temperature increase to 2\u00b0C above pre-industrial levels. To achieve this goal, all nations party to the UN Framework Agreement on Climate Change (UNFCCC) were required to submit a plan of the efforts they intend to take to meet their commitment to the 2\u00b0C goal.<\/p>\n

The road, however, to Paris has been long and arduous. In 1975, economist William Nordhouse expressed the \u201cfirst intuition\u201d that the global temperature should not exceed 2\u00b0C above the pre-industrial level. In 1992, the UNFCCC was signed at Rio, committing nations to stabilizing \u201cgreenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interferences with the climate system.\u201d In 2010, the UNFCCC Cancun Agreement committed governments to \u201chold the increase in global average temperature below 2\u00b0C above pre-industrial levels.\u201d<\/p>\n

I will leave you to decide for yourself as to whether the time is long overdue for global leaders to put into action the procedures required to cut emissions. But, as economist Peter F. Drucker said in his famous 1994 article The Theory of the Business <\/i>penned for The Harvard Business Review, \u201cA degenerative disease will not be cured by procrastination. It requires decisive action.\u201d<\/p>\n

*****<\/p>\n

*****<\/p>\n

Erica Dingman is a senior research fellow at\u00a0World Policy Institute\u00a0and directs the\u00a0Arctic in Context\u00a0initiative.<\/em><\/p>\n

[Photo Courtesy of\u00a0Wikimedia Commons<\/a>]<\/p>\n

This article first appeared on the World Policy Institute website.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Erica Dingman The field of science is known for expressing caution with the interpretation of its findings, but this is for a\u00a0 good reason. Scientific reports are couched in terms of \u2018uncertainty,\u2019 \u2018likely,\u2019 and \u2018high, medium, or low confidence\u2019 \u2013 nothing in life is guaranteed. So I was astonished to read a statement made<\/p>\n

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